Fitting and Estimating Parameter Confidence Limits with Sherpa
Brian Refsdal
Stephen Doe
Dan Nguyen
Aneta Siemiginowska
Sherpa is a generalized modeling and fitting package. Primarily developed
for the Chandra Interactive Analysis of Observations (CIAO) package by the
Chandra X-ray Center, Sherpa provides an Object-Oriented Programming (OOP)
API for parametric data modeling. It is designed to use the forward fitting
technique to search for the set of best-fit parameter values in parametrized
model functions. Sherpa can also estimate the confidence limits on best-fit
parameters using a new confidence method or using an algorithm based on
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). Confidence limits on parameter values are
necessary for any data analysis result, but can be non-trivial to compute in
a non-linear and multi-parameter space. This new, robust confidence method
can estimate confidence limits of Sherpa parameters using a finite
convergence rate. The Sherpa extension module, pyBLoCXS, implements a
sophisticated Bayesian MCMC-based algorithm for simple single-component
spectral models defined in Sherpa. pyBLoCXS has primarily been developed in
Python using high-energy X-ray spectral data. We describe the algorithm
including the features for defining priors and incorporating deviations in
the calibration information. We will demonstrate examples of estimating
confidence limits using the confidence method and processing simulations
using pyBLoCXS.
modeling, fitting, parameter, confidence, mcmc, bayesian
DOI10.25080/Majora-ebaa42b7-001